A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
